6/8/25

The U.S. Open is always one of the toughest tests in all of golf. Typically, there is long rough, fescue, lightning-fast greens, and of course, pressure. Bobby Jones once said, “Nobody ever wins the National Open. Somebody else just loses it.” Jones won the U.S. Open four times, including his famous 1930 triumph, part of the “impregnable quadrilateral” of winning the U.S. Open, U.S. Amateur, Open Championship, and the British Amateur all in the same year. Oakmont Country Club is a quintessential U.S. Open course, which forces the winner to answer 72 remarkably challenging questions over a pressure-packed four-day test. Part of the allure of Oakmont is that there are no trees and no water. Just grass, sand, and ubiquitous danger blankets the property that sits outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. From Sam Parks Jr.’s out-of-nowhere 1935 U.S. Open win, to Ben Hogan’s 1953 U.S. Open Championship, to Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer dualing in a playoff in 1962, to Johnny Miller’s 63 in the final round in 1973, Oakmont produces a worthy U.S. Open Champion every single time. The following players can define their careers in ways the rest of the field couldn’t with a U.S. Open win.

Scottie Scheffler

Since the calendar turned over to May, Scottie Scheffler has been beaten by only three players. That happened when he finished T4 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, when Ben Griffin found the winner’s circle. Scheffler started the season winless, but finished in the top 10 five times before winning three of his last four starts. The U.S. Open field won’t like this stat. According to Data Golf, this is the best golf Scottie Scheffler has ever played. He’s the only player to eclipse the DG Index of +3.00 or higher. The only other player was Tiger Woods, when his peak performance was 25 years ago, after his Canadian Open victory, when he was at a DG Index of +3.88. That stat essentially means that Scheffler is gaining three strokes per round on the field. Oakmont Country Club should fit Scheffler’s eye. Precision is one of the biggest keys to conquering Oakmont, and Scheffler’s accuracy is one of his most effective traits. Scheffler’s putting has been really good this year, only losing strokes putting twice. Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite, mirroring the odds that Tiger Woods had when he was in his prime. Scheffler played in the 2016 U.S. Open, when it was last held at Oakmont, but missed the cut.

Bryson DeChambeau

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the three best players in the world right now and is coming into Oakmont as the defending U.S. Open champion. DeChambeau also won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, and Oakmont should play similarly to the New York course. DeChambeau had success in 2016, finishing T15 and held the lead for a brief period. DeChambeau is a bona fide U.S. Open player, making 10 starts, missing only two cuts (2015 and 2017), and those two U.S. Open titles in five years. A third U.S. Open Championship would thrust him into rare air. Tiger Woods and Hale Irwin each have three U.S. Opens, and only four players have won four U.S. Opens. At only 31 years old, should DeChambeau win back-to-back U.S. Opens with two of the next four U.S. Opens held at sites he’s won this Championship at, it would be hard to fathom DeChambeau not getting to four or even more titles. The putter and distance control with his irons will make or break the week for DeChambeau.

Rory McIlroy

The last time Rory McIlroy finished outside of the top 10 at a U.S. Open was in 2018. Since that missed cut, McIlroy has finished T9, T8, T7, T5, 2, and 2. Last year was his best chance, holding the lead on the 70th hole, but bogeys on 15, 16, and 18 derailed his golden chance at a second U.S. Open. The year of McIlroy conquering legendary courses could continue at Oakmont. McIlroy has won at Pebble Beach, TPC Sawgrass, and Augusta National. Most players would be thrilled to have a victory at one of those courses in their entire career, let alone three months. Rory could use his power to blast drives, but his approach shots have won him tournaments. In all three of his wins, Rory has gained at least a stroke on approach shots in the tournament, and at The Players and Masters, gained over two strokes. After a disappointing finish at the PGA Championship and a stunning missed cut at the Canadian Open, McIlroy is still a top-three betting favorite to capture his sixth major championship. A sixth major would pull him even with Nick Faldo, Lee Trevino, and Phil Mickelson, while putting him ahead of Brooks Koepka. It’s already been a storybook year for McIlroy, adding a second major championship at another historic venue would be the cherry on top.

Phil Mickelson

Despite never winning a U.S. Open, Phil Mickelson might be one of the best U.S. Open players there ever was. Mickelson has six runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open, which is the most. Mickelson has more Top-5s than Tiger Woods, eight to Tiger’s six. Mickelson has made the cut 26 times in 33 attempts. In comparison, Jack Nicklaus played in 44 U.S. Opens and made the cut 35 times. Mickelson’s first U.S. Open came in 1990, where not only did he make the cut and finish as the low amateur, but he finished T29. For what it’s worth, Hale Irwin was the winner in 1990, and his first U.S. Open was in 1966. Mickelson challenging for the U.S. Open Championship are extremely slim. However, no one thought of him when he stepped foot on Kiawah Island in 2021, and he pulled off the improbable as a 50-year-old. Two years later, he finished T2 at the Masters. If Jack Nicklaus at age 58 can beat Tiger Woods, the year after Woods won the 1997 Masters by 12 shots, and finish T6, there’s no saying what Phil the thrill could pull off.

Collin Morikawa/Xander Schauffele

Collin Moriwaka and Xander Schauffele are in the same boat for a variety of reasons, but largely with their major championship resumé. Both players have won the Open Championship and PGA Championship, and a U.S. Open would put them on the precipice of completing the career grand slam at the Masters, a course both players have great track records at. Morikawa and Schauffele have had pretty solid seasons, albeit Schauffele was hurt for part of the year, but neither player has found the winner’s circle yet. Both players will be necessary components for the United States to win the Ryder Cup this fall and should make the team on points. Ironically, the course doesn’t favor, specifically off the tee. Morikawa doesn’t hit the ball far for modern-day standards, and Schauffele has been inaccurate off the tee. Winning at Oakmont starts with precision and distance off the tee. However, when the two players bring their A-game, they are almost unbeatable. Morikawa is only 28, and Schauffele is only 31, and getting three of the four majors at those ages, with their talents, would be a recipe for another grand slam champion(s).

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